Chinese package delivery stocks!

E-commerce is main driver in package delivery numbers

BZUN, BABA, JD have have had great returns since I bought them. But there are also other ways to enjoy the e-commerce boom. Here is estimated growth of online sales in China.

china_online Chinese package delivery stocks!

With that fast growth, many companies will make lots of money as business is booming. Here are two alternatives.

ZTO Express(ZTO)

ZTO Expressis a express delivery company in China and one of the largest express delivery companies globally, in terms of total parcel volume in 2015, according to the iResearch Report. ZTO provides express delivery service as well as other value-added logistics services through its extensive and reliable nationwide network in China covering over 96% of China’s cities and counties as of December 31, 2016. ZTO is both a key enabler and a direct beneficiary of China’s fast-growing e-commerce market, and has established itself as one of the largest express delivery service providers for millions of online merchants and consumers transacting on leading Chinese e-commerce platforms, such as Alibaba and Globally, ZTO provides delivery services in key overseas markets through its business partners as it expands coverage of international express delivery by collaborating with international industry players. -from IR of the company

At current valuation and estimated growth, +17%/ year is possible as illustrated by fast graphs tool.

zto_1 Chinese package delivery stocks!

IR presentation slides can be found at:

Best Inc (BSTI)

BEST Inc. is a fastest-growing Smart Supply Chain service provider in China. We offer integrated solutions to clients through our multisided platform that combines technology, integrated logistics and supply chain services, last-mile services and value-added services. BEST Cloud, our proprietary technology platform that seamlessly connects our systems with those of our ecosystem participants, is the backbone that powers our integrated services and solutions. -from IR of the company

Best is newer company which just had IPO to New York stock exchange. They use powerful Saas platform in their business and have been gaining market share fast. Currently they are not making profit but current stock price gives us P/E of 15 if analyst estimates hold for 2019. But that 2019 is long waiting game with not earnings. But if the company delivers, I estimate yearly return to be +30%. IPO makes also this company more risky but they have been performing good. They also have Alibaba as investor and backing supplying delivery requests.

Their growth numbers are strong but they are not close to making profit yet:

Three Months Ended% Change
(RMB million, except for %)Sept 30, 2016Sept 30, 2017YoY
EBITDA      (266)     (366)n/m
Adjusted EBITDA-266        (86)n/m
Net Loss-321-467n/m
Net Loss Margin(14.0%)(8.7%)5.3ppts
Non-GAAP Net Loss-321-184n/m
Non-GAAP Net Loss Margin(14.0%)(3.4%)10.6ppts

Keep on investing!


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